15 Dec 2025
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its November Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports, with the latest data presenting a distinctly bearish outlook for global wheat markets.
While market attention was largely focused on updated soybean and corn estimates, revisions to U.S. wheat production were widely anticipated following the release of the 2025 Small Grains Summary. In that report, U.S. wheat production was revised upward to 1.99 billion bushels, supported by an increase in average yields of 0.6 bushels per acre to 53.5 bushels per acre.
As a result of the higher production estimate, U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised by 67 million bushels to 901 million bushels, reinforcing a more comfortable domestic supply outlook.
The most significant market impact, however, stemmed from the WASDE report’s sharply bearish global wheat balance sheet. USDA raised its estimate of world wheat production to a record 829 million tonnes, an increase of 13 million tonnes from the previous forecast issued in September.
Major exporting countries accounted for nearly the entire increase, with combined production among key exporters rising by 13.2 million tonnes. Russia’s wheat output was revised higher by 2.9 million tonnes, while Argentina’s production was increased by 2.5 million tonnes. Production estimates were raised for all major wheat exporters except Ukraine.
On the demand side, USDA increased projected exports from major wheat-exporting countries by 2.5 million tonnes and raised domestic consumption by 3 million tonnes. However, these demand increases were insufficient to offset the larger supply gains, leading to a sharp rise in projected ending stocks.
Wheat ending stocks among major exporters were increased by 6.375 million tonnes, translating to approximately 62.9 days of supply—the highest stocks-to-use ratio since the 2018–19 crop year. Analysts say this elevated stock level is likely to exert downward pressure on wheat prices in the coming months.
USDA projections suggest intensified competition among exporters throughout the remainder of the 2025–26 marketing year. Evidence of this competitive environment was seen recently in a 58,000-tonne wheat sale from Russia to Mexico, highlighting aggressive pricing by Black Sea exporters.
The report also raised Southern Hemisphere wheat production by 4 million tonnes. Harvests are currently underway in Australia and Argentina, with export volumes from both countries expected to accelerate over the next two months. This additional supply is expected to cap global wheat prices well into early 2026.
Despite the broadly bearish global fundamentals, some positive developments have emerged in regional cash markets. Wheat prices in Western Canada have shown resilience, approaching mid-November levels seen last year, supported by exceptionally strong export demand.
Canadian wheat exports reached 6.18 million tonnes by the end of week 14, exceeding last year’s pace by 700,800 tonnes. Market participants note that sustained export demand could help support prices, even as global wheat markets contend with rising supplies and intensifying competition.