15 Dec 2025
UK wheat markets have come under renewed pressure, with May 2026 feed wheat futures falling to a contract low of £171.50 per tonne on 26 November, as currency strength and abundant global supplies weighed on prices.
The decline was partly driven by a stronger pound, which has reduced the competitiveness of UK wheat on international markets. Sterling was trading at £1 = $1.32 on 26 November, below its summer peak but still significantly firmer than levels seen a year ago.
Beyond currency effects, market fundamentals continue to dominate sentiment. Global grain supplies remain ample, exerting sustained downward pressure on prices. The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its 2025–26 global wheat production forecast to 830 million tonnes, an increase of 31 million tonnes year-on-year.
In South America, Argentina is expecting a bumper wheat crop for 2025–26. The Rosario Stock Exchange estimates total wheat supplies, including opening stocks, at around 28 million tonnes, leaving nearly 20 million tonnes available for export.
Meanwhile, Russia—the world’s largest wheat exporter—continues to signal strong supply prospects. Agricultural consultancy IKAR has pegged Russia’s 2025 wheat crop at 88.5 million tonnes, with production in 2026 projected in a range of 86 million to 91 million tonnes. Another consultancy, SovEcon, reported that Russian farmers are selling grain and oilseeds at a record pace, adding further pressure to global export markets.
In Europe, the EU crop monitoring service said in its latest update on 24 November that sowing is progressing well across most regions, with generally favourable establishment of winter cereals and rapeseed. However, dry conditions have slowed sowing in central Italy, eastern Hungary, and western Romania, while excessive rainfall has caused significant delays in southern Romania and northern Bulgaria.
Market participants say the wheat market currently lacks a clear catalyst. Dewing Grain noted that sentiment appears subdued, with prices caught between conflicting forces. “Wheat is lacking a clear driver, caught between bearish export competitiveness in Europe and supportive geopolitical and logistical issues in Ukraine,” the firm said. It added that U.S. wheat prices remain rangebound and that, without a major weather event or shift in demand, any rallies may struggle to gain traction.
With margins under pressure for cereal growers, Hectare Trading has advised a disciplined selling strategy. “Grain markets do not move in a neat seasonal cycle,” the firm said. “Weather scares, geopolitical events, global demand, and currency movements can trigger sharp price swings at any time. Selling grain little and often reduces risk compared with waiting for a perfect market window.”
Overall, analysts say that unless there is a significant disruption to supply or a notable improvement in demand, global wheat markets—including the UK—are likely to remain under pressure in the near term.