15 Dec 2025
Thailand’s rice exports fell sharply to 7.5 million tonnes in 2024-25, a 24% decline from 9.9 million tonnes the previous year, according to the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The decline reflects mounting global competition, particularly from India’s renewed presence in international markets and expanded Vietnamese rice supplies, which have eroded Thailand’s share in the high-volume white rice segment.
The FAS report indicates that white rice exports dropped significantly during the first half of the 2024-25 marketing year, reversing gains Thailand had made during India’s 2023 export restrictions. In contrast, parboiled and fragrant rice varieties continued to enjoy robust demand and price stability in premium markets across the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. These higher-value segments have helped mitigate the impact of the downturn in standard-grade white rice shipments.
Despite the contraction, Thailand remains the world’s third-largest rice exporter, behind India and Vietnam. The FAS projects similar export volumes of 7.5 million tonnes for the 2025-26 marketing year, indicating stability but also highlighting the sector’s ongoing challenges in regaining pre-competition highs of nearly 10 million tonnes.
On the production side, Thailand’s rice output for 2025-26 is projected at 20.48 million tonnes, slightly below the previous year and marking the country’s fourth-largest harvest on record. Ample production, along with significant carryover stocks, is expected to keep ending stocks between 3 and 4 million tonnes for both 2024-25 and 2025-26, helping to moderate domestic price volatility despite heightened export competition.
Thailand’s rice sector has experienced notable shifts in recent years. Elevated global prices during 2022-23, driven by India’s export restrictions, temporarily boosted Thai exports. However, the resumption of India’s shipments in 2024 and Vietnam’s adoption of advanced milling technology and high-quality rice varieties have intensified competition, particularly in the standard white rice segment.
While Thailand continues to maintain strength in premium parboiled and fragrant rice markets, the overall export outlook reflects the impact of heightened global competition and changing market dynamics.