15 Dec 2025
MOSCOW — Russia has solidified its dominance in the global grain market, reporting a record-breaking volume of wheat exports for November. According to preliminary data released by the Rusagrotrans analytical center, Russian wheat exports reached 5.5 million tons last month, surpassing earlier estimates of 5.3 million tons.
This performance signals a robust trajectory for the remainder of the year. Rusagrotrans projects that December exports could reach 4.3 million tons based on current vessel arrival schedules. This forecast represents a year-over-year increase from 4.15 million tons in December 2024 and exceeds the five-year average of 4 million tons.
Global Pricing and Competitive Landscape
Despite the surge in volume, export prices for Russian wheat (12.5% protein) for December delivery remained stable week-over-week, holding at $227–228 per ton (FOB).
The global pricing environment remains mixed among key competitors:
France: Rose by $2 to $227 per ton.
USA: Rose by $1 to $237 per ton.
Romania: Dropped by $2 to $232 per ton.
Ukraine: Dropped by $1 to $229 per ton.
Argentina: Remained unchanged at $209 per ton.
Market activity was further buoyed by strategic purchasing. Turkey’s state grain board (TMO) contracted 300,000 tons of Russian wheat on November 26 without a tender. The deal, estimated at $250–251 per ton (C&F), converts to an FOB Novorossiysk price of roughly $227–228, aligning perfectly with current market rates. Additionally, Tunisia purchased 75,000 tons of barley in late November, reflecting an FOB equivalent of $231–233 per ton.
Rising Supply from the Southern Hemisphere
While Russia leads current exports, supply forecasts from the Southern Hemisphere suggest intensifying competition for the 2025/26 season.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) has revised its production forecasts upward. Australian wheat production is now expected to reach 35.6 million tons (up 1.8 million tons), while barley is forecast to hit a record 15.7 million tons.
Similarly, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has adjusted Argentina’s wheat crop forecast upward by 1.5 million tons, targeting a total output of 25.5 million tons—a significant jump from the previous season’s 18.5 million tons.
Domestic Market and Logistics
Inside Russia, domestic pricing dynamics shifted slightly. Bid prices for Grade 4 wheat (12.5% protein) at deepwater ports softened, decreasing by 200 rubles to 15,600–15,800 rubles per ton (excluding VAT) for road delivery. Rail delivery prices saw a marginal decline to 16,000 rubles per ton.
Regional variations were noted:
South: Prices remained stable at 13,900–14,500 rubles per ton (EXW).
Central & Volga: Prices ranged from 12,000–12,500 rubles per ton.
Siberia: Prices saw a slight uptick of 150 rubles, reaching 9,200–10,500 rubles per ton.
Weather Outlook
Looking ahead, agronomic conditions appear favorable for the closing of the harvest season. Analysts report that persistent below-freezing temperatures in the coming week will facilitate the harvesting of late crops like corn and sunflowers.
Furthermore, adequate snow cover is expected to form in the Volga and Central Federal Districts by mid-December, providing essential insulation for winter crops. Meanwhile, light to moderate precipitation in key southern regions—Krasnodar, Stavropol, and Rostov—will help maintain optimal soil moisture levels heading into the new year.