15 Dec 2025
Chandigarh: Punjab has recorded its lowest paddy yield in nearly a decade, even as the state has surpassed its revised procurement target for the 2025–26 kharif marketing season, triggering concerns within official and agricultural circles over the source of the excess arrivals.
According to the state Agriculture Department, the average paddy yield, based on ongoing crop-cutting experiments (CCEs), stands at 5,669 kg per hectare, with nearly 84 percent of samples analysed so far. Officials indicate that the figure may decline further as additional samples are processed. This marks the lowest yield since 2015–16, when the average was recorded at 5,933 kg per hectare.
The apparent contradiction between subdued yields, flood-related crop losses, and record procurement volumes has raised the possibility that significant quantities of paddy from neighbouring states may have entered Punjab’s mandis and been sold at the minimum support price (MSP) as local produce.
Punjab reported a total paddy acreage of 32.49 lakh hectares this season, including 6.83 lakh hectares under Basmati, which is not procured by government agencies. This places the area under non-Basmati paddy at approximately 25.66 lakh hectares. However, close to two lakh hectares, largely in low-lying riverine belts, suffered crop damage during prolonged rainfall and flooding in August and September.
After accounting for the damaged acreage, the effective paddy area is estimated at around 23.63 lakh hectares. Applying the current CCE-based yield to this area, total production—and consequently procurement—should have been in the range of 135 lakh tonnes, officials estimate.
Contrary to these projections, Punjab has already procured nearly 157 lakh tonnes of paddy as of November 18, exceeding the estimated output by about 22 lakh tonnes. While arrivals have begun to taper off, small quantities of paddy continue to be reported in certain mandis across the state.
Initially, the state had set a procurement target of 185 lakh tonnes for the season. However, following widespread crop damage caused by floods, false smut, dwarfing, and other diseases, the target was revised downward to 150 lakh tonnes. Despite this revision, procurement has already surpassed the new benchmark.
A senior Punjab Mandi Board official described the discrepancy as “too significant to ignore.” “If crop-cutting estimates are accepted as scientifically robust—as they were in previous years—then procurement exceeding estimated production by nearly 20 lakh tonnes is a matter of concern,” the official said. “Such a gap cannot be explained without considering the possibility of paddy inflows from outside the state.”
The situation has prompted calls for closer scrutiny of procurement data and tighter monitoring of mandi arrivals to ensure the integrity of the MSP procurement system.