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Punjab’s Rice Output Likely to See Only Marginal Decline Despite Flood Damage

18 Sept 2025

Rice production in Punjab is expected to witness only a marginal decline this year, despite floods damaging paddy crops across nearly 2 lakh hectares, a senior state official said. The official added that higher yields in unaffected regions could help offset much of the crop loss.


Last year, Punjab produced 14.36 million tonnes (mt) of rice, including Basmati. This season, while non-Basmati crops near riverbanks bore the brunt of flooding, the relatively resilient Basmati area suffered less damage. The State has already sought central assistance to prepare fields for the upcoming rabi season in areas where harvests are unlikely.


Punjab remains critical to the Centre’s procurement plans, as it is the largest contributor to India’s rice buffer stock. From the kharif 2024 crop, the government procured 47.4 mt of rice against a target of 51.16 mt, of which Punjab supplied 11.61 mt. For the 2025 season, the Centre has set a national procurement target of 46.35 mt.


The area under paddy in Punjab stood at 32.49 lakh hectares as of September 5, nearly unchanged from last year. Despite ongoing policy pushes for crop diversification due to groundwater concerns, state officials noted that farmers continue to prefer paddy—especially Basmati—owing to its profitability and 100% procurement at the minimum support price (MSP).


“Farmers will only shift away from paddy if assured of the same profitability,” a state official said, pointing out that average yields of 44.28 quintals per hectare translate into farmer earnings of over ₹1 lakh per hectare at MSP. Current diversification incentives, at ₹17,000 per hectare, remain unattractive by comparison.


Meanwhile, India’s central stocks remain robust. As of September 1, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) held 36.91 mt of rice along with 16.90 mt of paddy (equivalent to 11.32 mt of rice), pushing total reserves to 48.23 mt—well above the 41 mt annual requirement under food security and welfare schemes.

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