15 Dec 2025
KARACHI: Pakistan’s rice exports have suffered a sharp setback in the current fiscal year, nearly halving amid intensified regional competition following India’s decision to lift restrictions on rice exports, commodity analysts said on Monday.
According to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), rice export earnings fell 46 percent to $581.2 million during July–October, compared with $1.08 billion in the same period last year. Export volumes also declined significantly, dropping 37 percent to 998,063 tonnes from 1.59 million tonnes a year earlier.
Industry representatives attribute the downturn largely to pricing pressures in the global market. Muzzammil R. Chappal, Chairman of the Cereal Association of Pakistan (CAP), said Pakistan is struggling to compete as regional exporters offer rice at lower prices.
“India, Thailand and Vietnam are currently offering rice at very competitive rates,” Chappal said, adding that Pakistan’s Super Basmati is being sold at around $1,200 per tonne, compared with India’s price ceiling of about $900 per tonne.
In non-basmati categories, such as 5 percent broken sorted rice, both Pakistan and India are losing market share to Vietnam and Thailand, which are offering the variety at around $350 per tonne, roughly 6 percent lower than the $370 per tonne quoted by exporters from Pakistan and India.
“Even though Pakistani basmati is more aromatic and superior in quality, price premiums matter in international trade,” Chappal noted.
Officials from the Commerce Ministry and senior representatives of the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) were not immediately available for comment.
India’s Return Reshapes the Market
Economists say Pakistan’s export slump coincides with India’s return to global rice markets after lifting a series of export bans earlier this year. India had initially prohibited exports of 100 percent broken rice in September 2022, and later extended restrictions to other varieties in 2023 due to adverse weather conditions. The ban on broken rice exports was lifted in March, significantly increasing global supply.
“Pakistan’s rice exports have declined as India’s policy shift has intensified competition,” said Shankar Talreja, Head of Research at Topline Securities. He added that the surge in Indian exports has exerted downward pressure on international prices.
Global data platform Statista ranked Pakistan as the world’s fourth-largest rice exporter in 2024, with shipments of 5.3 million tonnes, though it continues to trail India, which dominates global rice production and exports.
Macroeconomic Implications
Analysts warn that the decline in rice exports could weigh on Pakistan’s external accounts at a time when the economy remains under strain. Rice is a key foreign exchange earner, and reduced shipments are already affecting overall export performance.
From July to October, Pakistan’s total exports fell 4 percent to $10.4 billion, while food exports plunged 35 percent to $1.54 billion, according to official figures. The country posted a $112 million current account deficit in October, reversing a $83 million surplus in September. The cumulative current account deficit for July–October rose to $733 million, up 256 percent year-on-year, data from the State Bank of Pakistan showed.
“This decline in rice exports is lowering overall export earnings and contributing to a widening current account deficit,” Talreja said. Analysts estimate Pakistan’s current account deficit could reach around $3 billion in the fiscal year ending June 2026.
Ahsan Mehanti, CEO of Arif Habib Commodities Limited, added that export performance is also being affected by flood-related production losses, compounding the challenges facing the agricultural export sector.
As regional competitors expand supply and price competition intensifies, Pakistan’s rice exporters face growing pressure to recalibrate pricing strategies and explore value-added markets to arrest the decline.