15 Dec 2025
ASTANA, KAZAKHSTAN — Kazakhstan’s wheat sector faces a challenging 2025-26 marketing year, characterized by contracting production volumes and significant shifts in export strategies.
According to a recent report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, wheat production is estimated at 15.5 million tonnes, a decline of 1 million tonnes compared to the previous year. This contraction is driven by a dual dynamic: adverse weather conditions hampering yields and a strategic pivot by farmers toward more profitable oilseed crops.
Weather Impacts Quality and Logistics
Below-average temperatures and persistent wet weather have complicated the harvest season, causing delays in several key growing regions. The FAS warns that these conditions have raised concerns regarding both crop damage and grain quality.
“Depending on the extent of the damage, the amount of available feed grade wheat may increase,” the report noted. Consequently, total wheat exports are projected to fall to 8.6 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.6 million tonnes year-over-year.
Diversifying Logistics: Vietnam and the U.S.
Despite the dip in total volume, Kazakhstan is aggressively diversifying its logistical capabilities and destination markets. Between May and September, the country successfully shipped 17,000 tonnes of wheat to Vietnam utilizing an uninterrupted container route. The FAS indicates that this logistical model is set to expand, supported by government transport subsidies aimed at boosting market share in Southeast Asia.
In a landmark development for value-added products, Kazakhstani news outlets reported the nation's first-ever flour shipment to the United States in September. According to QazTrade, the government-affiliated export promotion agency, 50 tonnes of wheat flour were shipped to New York and are now retailing via Amazon.
The China Pivot: From Raw Grain to Feed Meal
The trade relationship with China is undergoing a structural shift. Wheat exports to China for the 2024-25 period have fallen sharply, reportedly due to Beijing halting duty-free imports into bonded zones.
However, the door remains open for processed goods. Exports of wheat and barley-based meals to China have surged, driven by favorable market conditions, continued duty-free treatment, and competitive pricing.
This feed meal typically consists of:
80% Feed-quality or non-class wheat
20% Barley and other grains
This demand has triggered an investment boom in Kazakhstan’s processing sector. Kazakh and Chinese investors are opening new facilities at a rapid pace. As of July 2025, the number of registered exporters to China had grown significantly, with 76 wheat feed meal companies and 67 barley feed meal companies now operational.