1 Jul 2025
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its latest report, has forecast global coarse grains production to reach a record 1.551 billion metric tonnes (mt) in the 2025–26 marketing year. This projection marks a 1.2 mt increase from earlier estimates, driven by favorable cultivation conditions in major producing regions including the European Union (EU), India, and Argentina.
The revised forecast reflects an increase of just over 1 mt from the previous estimate of 1,550.7 mt. This rise in output is expected to support moderate expansion in global trade, with imports projected to rise by 250,000 tonnes and exports by 360,000 tonnes. However, due to increased consumption, global ending stocks are expected to decline by nearly 3 mt, to 302.4 mt, the USDA noted.
Declining Global Stock Levels
The projected reduction in coarse-grain stocks is primarily attributed to lower carry-in levels, especially in China, South Africa, and India. China’s stock levels are expected to fall as a result of reduced imports for the 2024–25 season. Overall, global carry-in stocks for 2025–26 are revised down by more than 2.5 mt, largely due to an estimated 1 mt increase in U.S. corn exports in 2024–25. Consequently, global carry-out stocks for 2025–26 are also forecast to fall by almost 3 mt.
Regional Highlights and Crop Updates
European Union (EU): Spain's barley yield is projected to grow by 3%, contributing to an overall EU production estimate of 53.3 mt, up by 300,000 tonnes.
India: Corn yield projections have been revised upward from 3.57 to 3.65 tonnes per hectare, supported by improved soil moisture. Nearly 50% of the Kharif corn crop has been planted, with the sowing window set to close by the end of July. With expanded planting area and higher yield prospects, India’s 2024–25 corn crop is anticipated to be record-breaking.
Middle East: In stark contrast, regions such as Iraq and Syria are experiencing severe dryness. While barley acreage remains unchanged, yields are expected to drop significantly—by 12% in Iraq and 36% in Syria. Iraq’s yield has been revised from 1.42 to 1.25 tonnes per hectare, largely due to persistent drought in its rainfed northern regions. Syria’s production is forecast to decline by more than 70% compared to the previous year.
South Africa: After a drought-affected season, corn production in 2024–25 is projected to rebound to 15.8 mt, an increase of 17% year-over-year, although slightly below earlier projections.
These updates underscore the evolving global dynamics of coarse grain production, with strong gains in key producing nations offsetting regional challenges. The USDA’s forecast highlights the resilience of global grain markets amid variable climatic and trade conditions.