1 Jul 2025
Global rice production is forecast to reach an all-time high of 541.6 million tonnes (mt) on a milled basis in the 2025–26 season, according to the latest report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). This represents a 2.9 mt increase from the previous projection and a 0.4 mt rise over the revised estimate for the previous year. The surge is primarily driven by a 3.0 mt upward revision in India's output, now expected to reach a record 151.0 mt, alongside a marginal increase in Australia’s production to 346,000 tonnes. However, the U.S. output is expected to decline by 155,000 tonnes to 6.8 mt. Year-on-year, growth is anticipated in countries including Bangladesh, Burma, China, the EU, Ghana, India, Madagascar, Mali, Nepal, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka—offsetting declines in nations such as Argentina, Brazil, Cambodia, Indonesia, Nigeria, Thailand, and Vietnam. India and China are set to remain the top two global producers, jointly contributing over 50% of total rice output.
The total global rice supply is also projected to climb to a record 728.9 mt—up 5.1 mt from the previous forecast—supported by increased production and a 2.2 mt rise in beginning stocks. Significant contributors to this surge in carry-in stocks include India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nigeria, with India’s stock revised up to 45.0 mt. Consumption is expected to hit a historic 541.1 mt, with India accounting for the majority of this rise, projected to consume 126.5 mt due to ample availability. Rising consumption across West Africa also adds to global demand. Ending stocks for 2025–26 are now forecast at a record 187.8 mt, up 2.8 mt from earlier projections, driven by higher reserves in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nigeria. China and India are projected to hold around 80% of global ending stocks, underlining their continued dominance in global rice reserves, largely supported by strategic government stockpiling programs.
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