1 Jul 2025
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected a notable increase in rice imports for the 2025–26 marketing year, driven primarily by reduced domestic long-grain production and the need to supplement supplies with imported broken kernels. The USDA’s latest outlook estimates all-rice imports will rise by 4.5% year-on-year to reach a record 50.7 million hundredweight (cwt).
Long-Grain Imports to Hit Record High
Long-grain rice imports are forecast at 44.0 million cwt, an increase of 1.0 million cwt, or nearly 5% over the previous year. The USDA attributes this rise to a smaller domestic long-grain crop and reduced milling output, which has led to higher demand for imported broken rice. Traditionally, Brazil has been a key supplier of broken kernels, while Mexico began contributing to U.S. broken rice imports in early 2024.
Despite these developments, Asian aromatic rice varieties—particularly jasmine from Thailand and basmati from India and Pakistan—are expected to continue dominating U.S. long-grain imports. South American countries are projected to maintain a marginal role in supplying long-grain milled rice to the U.S. market.
Medium- and Short-Grain Imports Also Increase
Imports of medium- and short-grain rice are forecast to rise by 0.5 million cwt, reaching 6.7 million cwt—a 3% increase compared to the revised figure for 2024–25. The increase is largely driven by continued shipments from Argentina to Puerto Rico, which have offset a substantial decline in imports from China, a longtime supplier to the U.S. territory.
Thailand and India are projected to remain the primary suppliers of medium- and short-grain rice to the United States, followed by smaller volumes from Italy, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
Carry-In Stocks Reach Multi-Year High
In addition to higher imports, the USDA raised its estimate for carry-in stocks for the 2025–26 season to 45.5 million cwt, a 14% increase from the previous year and the highest level since 2017–18. Long-grain rice carry-in stocks are forecast at 35.3 million cwt, a substantial 83% increase, marking the highest level since 2011–12. Meanwhile, carry-in for medium- and short-grain rice is projected at 8.5 million cwt, down 55% from last year due to higher supplies during the 2024–25 season.
Total Supply Outlook
The total U.S. rice supply for 2025–26 is now forecast at 310.6 million cwt, a modest 100,000 cwt increase over the previous year, although 2.9 million cwt lower than earlier projections.
Long-grain rice supply is estimated at 239.1 million cwt, up over 2% year-on-year and the highest on record, largely due to expanded carry-in.
Conversely, medium- and short-grain rice supplies are projected at 69.9 million cwt, down more than 7% compared to last year, reflecting lower carry-in volumes.
These developments underscore the shifting dynamics of U.S. rice supply and demand, with growing reliance on imports and carry-over stock to meet domestic consumption needs.