1 Jul 2025
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its forecast for rice production in the 2025–26 marketing year, projecting a total output of 214.4 million hundredweight (cwt). This represents a reduction of 4.9 million cwt from the previous forecast and a 3.5% decline compared to the 2024–25 crop year.
The downward revision is largely attributed to a 70,000-acre reduction in the projected harvested area, now estimated at 2.768 million acres, also 3.5% lower than last year. A notable drop in long-grain rice acreage is only partially offset by increased medium- and short-grain plantings.
According to the USDA, long-grain rice production is now projected at 159.7 million cwt, down 7.5 million cwt from the previous estimate and 7% below last year’s production. The decline is driven by reduced plantings, particularly in the southern U.S., due to excessive spring rainfall in the Delta region.
Conversely, medium- and short-grain rice production is expected to rise to 54.7 million cwt, 2.6 million cwt higher than earlier estimates and 9% above the previous year. This increase is attributed to expanded acreage in California, where favorable weather, strong irrigation supplies, and limited alternative crops have encouraged more planting.
Crop emergence remains ahead of historical averages. As of June 8, 93% of the 2025–26 crop had emerged, slightly outpacing both last year’s figure and the five-year national average. By region, California’s emergence rate stood at 80%, compared to its five-year average of 72%. States such as Louisiana and Texas also reported early emergence, while Mississippi and Missouri lagged behind.
Despite the reduction in harvested area, the average rice yield has been slightly revised upward by 19 pounds to 7,746 pounds per acre, owing to a shift in acreage from lower-yielding long-grain varieties to higher-yielding medium- and short-grain types. However, the updated yield remains virtually unchanged from the previous year.
The USDA notes that a more comprehensive assessment of actual planting will be provided in the upcoming NASS Acreage Report, scheduled for release on June 30, 2025. This report will incorporate field-level survey data and provide a clearer picture of nationwide rice acreage.