15 Dec 2025
New Delhi: India, the world’s largest rice exporter, is on course to set a new benchmark in rice exports in 2025–26, supported by higher domestic production, a sharp rebound in shipments, and concerted efforts to diversify export destinations, industry representatives said.
According to the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF), exports of both basmati and non-basmati rice are projected to rise 16 percent to 23.5 million tonnes in 2025–26, up from 20.2 million tonnes in 2024–25. If realised, shipments would surpass the previous record of 22.35 million tonnes achieved in 2022–23.
The expected surge marks a strong recovery from 2023–24, when rice exports fell sharply to 16.35 million tonnes following government-imposed restrictions on certain non-basmati varieties to protect domestic availability amid elevated global prices. After these curbs were lifted last year, exports rebounded, growing 23.4 percent in 2024–25, according to data from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS).
Exporters believe the current momentum could extend further. “Rice exports are likely to grow by 16 percent in the current fiscal year, and we are targeting shipments of 30 million tonnes by 2026–27,” said Dev Garg, Vice President, IREF, which represents more than 7,500 rice exporters nationwide.
IREF’s outlook broadly aligns with the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) November 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, which place India’s rice exports at around 25 million tonnes for the 2025–26 marketing year. The USDA follows an October–September marketing year, while India’s fiscal year runs from April–March.
Market composition
In 2024–25, non-basmati rice accounted for about 70 percent of export volumes and 48 percent of export value, reflecting its large share in price-sensitive markets. Basmati, a premium long-grain aromatic variety, commands higher value but lower volumes.
Export destinations vary significantly by category. Africa and Asian countries dominate the non-basmati market, while the Middle East, Europe, and North America are the primary destinations for basmati rice.
Data show that in 2024–25, the top five non-basmati markets—Benin, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, and Bangladesh—together accounted for 44 percent of export volumes and 43.8 percent of value. For basmati rice, the top five destinations—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and the UAE—made up 61.2 percent of volumes and 59.3 percent of value.
Production surge
India’s export strength has been underpinned by a sharp rise in production. In 2024–25, India overtook China to become the world’s largest rice producer, with output estimated at 150 million tonnes, or roughly 28 percent of global production, according to USDA figures.
Garg attributed the expansion to supportive government policies and improved farming practices. “Rice cultivation has become highly remunerative for farmers due to subsidies and the assurance of a minimum support price (MSP),” he said.
The MSP for paddy was fixed at ₹23.69 per kg this year, with several states offering additional bonuses. “Some states, such as Chhattisgarh, provide a premium of up to ₹9 per kg over the MSP,” Garg noted.
Sustainability concerns
While government incentives have played a key role in boosting production and exports, economists caution against unchecked expansion. Ashok Gulati, agricultural economist and professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), acknowledged the role of policy support but warned that India may be producing more rice than its natural resource base can sustainably support.
As India prepares to extend its reach to 172 export markets and counting, balancing export ambitions with ecological sustainability is likely to emerge as a critical policy challenge in the years ahead.