15 Dec 2025
COEUR D’ALENE, Idaho — The 2024-25 season is shaping up to be a historic year for global wheat production, creating a complex market landscape defined by record surpluses and rapidly shifting consumption patterns.
Speaking at the Washington Association of Wheat Growers annual convention, Brian Liedl, Vice President for Overseas Operations at U.S. Wheat Associates, described the current environment as one of “bumper crops” across multiple key regions. While this abundance ensures food security, it places significant downward pressure on global pricing.
“As long as someone in the world has plenty of wheat, it’s hard to rally prices. A true global rally happens only when everyone runs short,” Liedl explained to attendees.
The Supply Paradox
According to the latest USDA projections, global production in 2025 is set to exceed expected consumption for the first time since the 2019-20 marketing year. However, this surplus is being rapidly absorbed by an aggressive acceleration in demand.
“We’re struggling to keep pace with global wheat demand,” Liedl noted. The growth is most visible in Asia and Southeast Asia. In the 1991-92 season, the region consumed just 6 million tons of soft white wheat from the U.S. Pacific Northwest. By 2024, that demand had tripled to 18 million tons.
The Dietary Shift: Wheat Over Rice
A fundamental shift in dietary preferences is driving this consumption boom. Despite slowing population growth rates, consumers in developing economies are increasingly substituting traditional staples with wheat-based bakery products.