15 Dec 2025
COEUR D’ALENE, Idaho — The global wheat market is navigating a complex and competitive season, characterized by simultaneous record harvests and a structural acceleration in global demand. This dynamic is placing downward pressure on prices even as consumption continues to climb, according to analysis presented by Brian Liedl, Vice President for Overseas Operations at U.S. Wheat Associates.
Liedl, speaking at the Washington Association of Wheat Growers convention, noted that the current season has yielded "bumper crops" across multiple key production regions. This widespread abundance makes a global price rally difficult, as high supply levels in any one major region can quickly absorb shortfalls elsewhere.
The Demand-Supply Paradox
USDA projections indicate that global wheat production in 2025 is expected to exceed consumption for the first time since the 2019-20 marketing year. However, this surplus is being quickly challenged by the rapid growth in international demand, particularly across Asia. Liedl stated, “We’re struggling to keep pace with global wheat demand.”
This growth is especially pronounced in Asia and Southeast Asia. In the early 1990s, the region consumed just 6 million tons of U.S. Pacific Northwest soft white wheat; by 2024, that figure had tripled to 18 million tons.
Dietary Shift Fuels Consumption
The primary driver of this sustained demand is a fundamental shift in dietary preferences. Consumers are increasingly substituting rice for wheat and baked goods. From 2009 to 2020, per-capita wheat consumption in the region soared by 47%, while rice consumption declined by 10 kilograms per person.
Liedl believes the potential for expansion remains vast. As Southeast Asian economies fully industrialize, he projects annual demand could jump by another 74%, potentially reaching 30 million tons. If realized, this expansion would require U.S. soft white wheat exports to increase from today’s 2.6 million tons to a possible 4.5 million tons annually, requiring nearly 86% of current U.S. ending stocks to be mobilized.
Market Strategy and Competition
U.S. Wheat Associates sees significant growth opportunities beyond Asia, including in the demographically expanding regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Strategic gains are already evident:
In Indonesia, the world's second-largest wheat market, the U.S. market share increased from 5% to 7% in one year.
Bangladesh saw a remarkable jump in U.S. imports, rising from zero to 288,000 tons following new cooperation agreements.
Despite these inroads, U.S. exporters face intense competition from rising supplies originating in Europe, Australia, the Black Sea region, and Argentina. Nevertheless, U.S. soft white wheat from the Pacific Northwest, valued for its consistent quality and ideal 10% protein levels, remains a premium product. Liedl concluded, "Soft white wheat has very few competitors. It’s as close to a silver bullet as we have."