15 Dec 2025
Global rice prices have inched up in recent weeks, but trade sources caution that the modest uptick is unlikely to be sustained amid abundant supplies in India and rising global production.
Exporters note that large inventories in India are expected to exert downward pressure on prices in the coming months. “Rice prices have increased slightly, but the overhang of stocks in India is significant and will likely cap any further gains,” said New Delhi–based exporter Rajesh Paharia Jain.
India currently holds exceptionally high reserves. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) has stocks of 33.6 million tonnes (mt) of rice and 30.91 mt of paddy, equivalent to about 21 mt of rice—the highest level in a decade.
Competitive Pricing in Export Markets
In the global market, India’s 5 percent broken white rice is being offered at around $346 per tonne, making it more competitive than Thai and Vietnamese supplies, though Pakistan remains the lowest-priced origin at about $340 per tonne.
“The market will face additional pressure as rice production is projected to reach a new high in the current kharif season,” Jain said.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, India’s kharif rice output is estimated at a record 125.40 mt, up from 122.77 mt last year. Globally, the International Grains Council (IGC) projects rice production at a new peak of 543 mt, compared with 541 mt a year earlier. With global trade estimated at 61 mt and consumption at 549 mt, ending stocks are forecast at 189 mt, up from 186 mt last year.
Regional Production Shifts
While overall output is rising, production of certain speciality varieties has declined. S. Chandrasekaran, Managing Director of Svastha Ecoharvest, said output of popular varieties such as Sona Masuri and BPT is lower this year, as growers reduced acreage after receiving unremunerative prices last season.
“Rice prices may soften further due to bumper production, particularly with additional output coming from Telangana supported by the Kaleshwaram irrigation project,” he said. Despite surplus availability, domestic rice prices remain firm in Telangana, reflecting regional demand dynamics.
Export Activity Remains Muted
Exporters say overseas shipments have been relatively subdued this year. “There has been no major movement on the rice export front,” said M. Madan Prakash, Director of Chennai-based Rajathi Group.
Data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) show that non-basmati rice exports during the first half of the current fiscal year stood at 7.02 mt. While this compares favourably with the same period last year, when exports were restricted, it remains below the 8.96 mt shipped during the corresponding period in 2022–23.
“Exports are happening at a slow pace,” Jain said, adding that many African buyers are constrained by shortages of US dollars, even though they are willing to pay in local currencies.
Chandrasekaran attributed part of the slowdown to the manner in which India lifted export restrictions. “The curbs on non-basmati white rice were not removed in a calibrated way, which affected demand planning by overseas buyers,” he said. India had imposed the ban from July 2023 to September 2024 to contain domestic inflation and offset wheat supply shortages.
Senegal Impact and Weather Risks
Indian rice shipments to Senegal have also faced a temporary setback due to the expiry of import licences. However, traders believe the impact will be limited. “The quantity involved is less than 50,000 tonnes, so the effect will be short-lived and mostly felt by smaller traders,” Jain said.
Looking ahead, weather-related risks could still influence prices. Chandrasekaran noted that the possible emergence of La Niña conditions and the threat of Cyclone Senyar could disrupt production in parts of Asia. “Any significant damage to paddy crops in the Far East or Southeast Asia, in addition to India, could provide support to prices,” he said.
For now, however, ample stocks and record output suggest that global rice prices are more likely to face downward pressure once the current, modest uptick fades.