15 Dec 2025
Leading grain market analysts do not rule out a reduction in Russia’s wheat harvest in 2026, with most early forecasts pointing to output slightly below expected levels for the current year, according to an Interfax survey of industry experts.
The majority of projections for the 2026 wheat crop fall within the range of 85.5 million to 88 million tonnes, compared with near-final estimates of 88.4–88.5 million tonnes for the 2025 harvest. Analysts note that outcomes could vary widely depending on weather conditions, with upside potential of up to 91 million tonnes under highly favourable conditions, or a downside risk of around 82 million tonnes if adverse weather affects key grain-producing regions.
Experts emphasised that weather will remain the decisive factor, but structural issues are also emerging. Even under average climatic conditions, wheat production could be negatively affected by a reduction in sown areas and the simplification of farming technologies, driven by declining profitability in grain production.
“The new wheat harvest is currently forecast at 86–91 million tonnes. This estimate is based largely on the fact that the area sown with winter wheat for the 2026 harvest is close to last year’s level, and crop conditions are better. However, this remains a very preliminary forecast,” said Dmitry Rylko, General Director of the Institute of Agrarian Market Conjuncture (IKAR).
IKAR estimates Russia’s wheat harvest in 2025 at 88.5 million tonnes, with total grain output expected to reach approximately 139 million tonnes.
Vladimir Petrichenko, General Director of ProZerno, said the downward trend in wheat sown areas is likely to continue into 2026, limiting upside potential for production. However, he cautioned that it is still too early for firm forecasts.
Independent analyst Alexander Korbut placed the baseline potential for the 2026 wheat harvest at 86–88 million tonnes, while acknowledging a wide range of possible outcomes. “Depending on how weather conditions develop, the harvest could be as low as 82 million tonnes or as high as 90 million tonnes,” he said.
Korbut attributed the lower outlook compared to 2025 to two key factors. “First is the reduction in sown areas. Winter wheat acreage will at least be maintained and may even increase, but spring wheat areas are set to decline rapidly, as winter wheat offers higher yields, ” he explained. “The second factor is the simplification of production technologies, including reduced purchases of machinery and fertilisers.”
He added that farmers are increasingly prioritising higher-margin crops. “If growers have to choose between investing in fertilisers for wheat or oilseeds, they are likely to favour oilseeds due to their better profitability,” Korbut said.
Analysts also pointed to persistently low margins in grain production as a broader structural challenge, which could further weigh on Russia’s wheat output prospects in 2026.