15 Dec 2025
MERSIN, TÜRKIYE — Global durum wheat fundamentals have eased considerably, marking a welcome respite for the global pasta industry after several seasons of tight supply. Speaking at AgroFoodSummit 2025 in Mersin, Filippo Bertuzzi, Senior Market Analyst at Italian consultancy Areté, confirmed that the market is currently in its second consecutive year of stock rebuilding, though a potential trade dispute between the United States and Italy looms over the future outlook.
Production Recovery Drives Balance
World durum production for the 2025-26 marketing year is estimated to be up by approximately 1 to 1.2 million tonnes year-on-year. This recovery is underpinned by improved harvests across both major demand and supply centers.
Italy, the European Union’s largest durum importer and the heart of its pasta production, harvested a significantly larger crop, with output rising by over 1.1 million tonnes (roughly 15%) compared to the previous year.
North America, forming what Bertuzzi termed a massive "export box," saw combined durum production in Canada and the United States reach close to 9 million tonnes, which he characterized as a two-decade record.
In contrast, other key regions saw slight dips from recent peaks. Türkiye faced dry weather that reduced yields from last year's highs, though volumes remain historically strong. Exporters in the wider Black Sea and CIS regions show a similar trend: slightly below their previous peaks but at comfortable overall supply levels. Bertuzzi summarized the situation, stating, “this is a pretty comfortable production picture worldwide.”
Mexico's Structural Shift
The most significant structural change on the global supply map is the transition of Mexico. Once a key global producer, the country has fallen out of the world’s top six after severe dry conditions during planting prevented sufficient sowing. Consequently, Mexican production has plummeted by about 1 million tonnes, turning the country into a net importer of durum for the first time.
Inventories Replenished, Prices Soften
Durum demand, tightly linked to pasta and semolina output, is highly inelastic—consumer habits are resistant to price changes, and manufacturers have limited substitution options.