15 Dec 2025
Thailand is set to gain a significant lift in rice exports as China plans to purchase 500,000 tonnes of Thai rice, a move seen as timely amid increasing tariff pressures from the United States across the region. Political economist Somjai Phagaphasvivat noted that the deal provides mutual benefits, helping regional exporters diversify markets while supporting Thailand’s agricultural sector.
Thailand’s economic growth has slowed sharply, with projections of 1.2% in Q3 2025, down from 3.2% in Q1 and 2.8% in Q2. Without new measures, growth is expected to dip to 0.6% in Q4, making the rice export boost particularly significant.
The rice deal with China, alongside an additional order of 100,000 tonnes from Singapore, positions Thailand to meet its 2025 rice export target of 7.5 million tonnes and potentially reach 8 million tonnes in 2026. “It’s a timely boost. Accelerated payments can support this quarter and spill over into early next year,” Phagaphasvivat said. The agreement is expected to be formalized next month during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit for the Mekong‑Lancang summit in Bangkok.
Farmers optimisticThe announcement has been welcomed by farmer groups anticipating rapid revenue inflows into rural areas. Pramote Charoensilp, president of the Thai Agriculturist Association, noted that Thailand still has around 280,000 tonnes pending from earlier agreements with China, and it remains unclear whether the new order includes this quota.
“While 500,000 tonnes is not a huge volume relative to national supply, it is still meaningful. The fact that the agreement coincided with His Majesty the King’s visit is a positive signal, and farmers are encouraged,” he said.
White rice is currently trading at 4,000–5,000 baht per tonne, while jasmine rice maintains strong prices at around 14 baht per kilogram. Pramote indicated that China’s purchase may favor future orders, although the price of white rice is unlikely to rise sharply since stocks are largely held by mills and traders rather than farmers.
Domestic market supportThailand’s Department of Internal Trade (DIT) reported that domestic rice prices have increased following measures approved by the National Rice Policy and Management Committee (NRPMC). These include storage support schemes, delayed-sale programs, and expanded provincial paddy markets to absorb supply and stabilize prices.
Wittayakorn Maneenetr, DIT Director-General, said jasmine paddy prices have risen to 14,700–16,100 baht per tonne, up 1,000 baht, while white rice paddy increased by up to 400 baht per tonne. Since November 10, the ministry has organized provincial rice-market events across 32 provinces in the North, Northeast, and Central Plains, continuing until April 2026. These fairs connect buyers directly with farming areas, reduce transport costs, create new sales channels, and address historical challenges in regions previously lacking buyers.
Overall, the China rice purchase, combined with domestic support measures, offers a timely boost for Thailand’s rice sector, reinforcing both export momentum and market stability.