15 Dec 2025
SASKATOON: Canada will require robust global demand to absorb a sharply larger lentil crop in the 2025–26 marketing year, as production has surged at home and across other key exporting countries, according to industry analysts.
One potential source of support is Turkey, one of Canada’s major lentil customers, which suffered a severely reduced harvest this year. Turkish farmers produced just 230,000 tonnes of red lentils, a 43 percent decline from the previous year and the third-smallest crop on record, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Production of green lentils fell even more sharply, down 58 percent year-on-year to 29,700 tonnes.
“We do need some positive demand signals, particularly with what appears to be a strong Australian crop coming onto the market,” said Bruce Burnett, markets analyst at The Western Producer. “The smaller Turkish crop is helpful.”
Turkey imported 406,738 tonnes of lentils during the first nine months of 2025, with Kazakhstan emerging as the leading supplier, accounting for 42 percent of shipments. Canada ranked second, supplying 36 percent of Turkey’s imports during the same period.
Looking ahead, Mercantile Consulting Venture expects Turkey to import about 325,000 tonnes of lentils in the 2025–26 crop year, offering continued, though competitive, demand opportunities.
Canada’s need for export demand is heightened by a large domestic crop.
Statistics Canada estimates national lentil production at 2.97 million tonnes, up 22 percent from last year and the second-largest crop on record, behind the 3.19 million tonnes harvested in 2016.
However, analysts caution that quality is as much a concern as volume this season. “The crop is large, but quality is highly variable,” Burnett said. Saskatchewan Agriculture estimates that only 22 percent of the crop achieved top grade, well below the 10-year average of 31 percent, while about 20 percent fell into the lowest two grades, with some volumes likely headed to the feed market.
In a recent analysis for Saskatchewan Pulse Growers, Mercantile estimated production at 1.54 million tonnes of red lentils, 972,000 tonnes of large and medium green lentils, and 455,000 tonnes of small green lentils. Green lentil supplies are significantly higher than in the past three years, while red lentil production is about 180,000 tonnes lower than last year, narrowing the traditional price spread between the two categories.
Total Canadian lentil supply could reach 3.6 million tonnes, nearly 1 million tonnes more than last year, reflecting both higher production and carry-in stocks.
Globally, lentil output is rising across all major exporting regions, including Kazakhstan, Russia, and Australia. The Australian government estimates the country’s lentil harvest at 1.71 million tonnes, with the potential for further upward revisions. Australian carryout stocks are also expected to increase year-on-year, despite a strong export program.
Global lentil production is forecast at 7.6 million tonnes, a 15 percent increase from last year. “Supply is essentially assured,” Mercantile said, “and price direction will now depend on the strength and depth of demand.”
India, the world’s largest lentil importer, is expected to purchase around 650,000 tonnes in 2025–26, according to Mercantile. Canada is likely to face intense competition in that market, particularly from Australia.
Canada’s total lentil exports are projected at 2.1 million tonnes, up from 1.84 million tonnes in 2024–25. Despite this increase, carryout stocks are forecast at a heavy 1.15 million tonnes, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 45 percent.
Further pressure could emerge if production exceeds current estimates. “Provincial data suggest output could be as much as 600,000 tonnes higher than the September forecast,” Stat said in a recent analysis, which would push carryout stocks toward a potential record 1.19 million tonnes, even accounting for stronger domestic feed demand.